Beware of the future to encourage the purchase overdraft
name to meet the housing needs of the people of the two suites to improve the policy, in essence, is to encourage real estate speculators, hoping to account by including the housing needs of the speculative real estate market is pulling together to promote capital into real estate market
Mr Cao published in supplies, and other important industrial development, financial sector stability and development is essential for the promotion of consumption structure upgraded an important role in improving people's livelihood, requiring the introduction of policies to promote stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
12 21, State Office Office issued part of the implementation of business tax relief policies the provisional year.
then, these policies to stimulate domestic demand to stimulate consumption in the short and long term whether it can have much effect?
prices and boost domestic demand to stimulate the introduction of state frequently the real estate market policy, why we must stimulate the market to stimulate the economy? from China's situation, housing and automobile consumption that should be the two hot spots, once the consumption of these two parts of the flame, China's consumption growth will be a huge landslide. In 2007, total sales of commercial housing was 2.96 trillion yuan, most of which is housing sales. China's GDP in 2007 (calculated by expenditure) of 26.2 trillion yuan, of which consumption accounted for 49% About 12.8 trillion yuan, accounting for a mortgage of about 20% of consumption, should be a large proportion; another part of the automobile consumption in China since 2008, total sales of wholesale and retail trade, car sales accounted for 28%, refined oil consumption accounts for 12%, the two parts add up to wholesale and retail sales accounted for 40%. in China's exports as an economic drag on growth, housing and auto turn off when the two hot spots, and that the Chinese blow to economic growth, it will be very obvious.
However, in the real estate prices artificially high, seriously out of urban and rural household income levels under the conditions of housing consumption in order to ensure the sustainability of growth, in theory is almost impossible. If removing the housing consumption in the investment and speculative demand, the real housing consumption is far nearly 3 trillion high. the housing needs of true in two ways: one is the real estate prices were inflated, 2007 The average sales price of commercial housing was 3,885 yuan per square meter. The price compared to 3367 yuan in 2006, up 15.4%, and is included towns across the country, affordable housing price after the price level. Another , the sharp rise in house prices 2003-2007, the volume of transactions of real estate is overpriced. The reason is that housing demand, including demand for more speculative, are not real needs. For the purposes of these speculators, buy a house the purpose of selling, housing from the developer of the hands to the hands of speculators, and not to achieve real consumption, so this accounts for 20% of the purchase of consumer spending is not sustainable. In this sense, Hill said, pulling the economy expanding domestic demand, stimulate domestic residents can not rely on buyers. In the case of the current artificially high prices to encourage people to buy too much, others will inevitably squeeze consumers, and advances of the future consumption; So, I think not Now buyers should be encouraged, unless the price is reasonable.
prices down to what kind of level, will it be possible to be true? I think the real price level, is to weed out all the real estate prices kinds of profits, including the Government land in the profits, developers and real estate windfall profits. I think the price of affordable housing, housing prices are real. this basis, the national urban average price should be around 2,000 yuan. If the country Rates can be reduced to this level, certainly a substantial increase in demand for housing.
house prices to a reasonable level will stimulate demand for the two parts: one is people improve their housing needs. because the price is reasonable, is not prepared to original buy a house now ready to buy; another may be the stimulus that low-income groups to purchase ranks. No matter what kind of stimulus to consumption, a fundamental principle that transactions must be implemented in a fair public consumption; in turn, simply drive the public out of the money from the bank, despite the short-term increase in demand, but the consumer demand is not sustainable. Therefore, we must on the basis of fair trade in the expansion of domestic demand, absolutely not deceive consumers, is a principle; otherwise bound to exacerbate the conflict between the government and the public.
policy may be planted two suites hidden
mortgage preferential policies promulgated by the state against the real estate industry, especially in the second suite of policies and exempted from business tax credit policies, of course, can reduce the burden on home buyers, but these policies impetus for the drop in home prices is limited and the resulting mortgage issues may be.
price regulation from the government for the effects of various means of view, pressure on prices is the biggest expansion of the supply of affordable housing, and in a good location in the building of more affordable housing, the more obvious the effect of falling prices. This is the real estate developers have been between the government and the game lies. But the current local government in order to prevent land and housing prices fall, some simply stop the construction of affordable housing, retention of affordable housing, then it is built in a remote location, severely weakened the role of affordable housing should be.
Now the problem is, the state relaxed the liquidity of real estate developers, including the development of mortgage loans and consumer loans both parts of a marked loosening of the pressure of developers to drop prices significantly enough. consumer mortgage loans Relax on the performance of policies introduced in the second suite policies. in the real estate credit environment, fundamental changes have occurred in the circumstances, given the price the developer will give huge business risk, the state's initiative on the validity of real estate developers, and not an inevitable result. On the contrary, if the state introduced tough measures to suppress prices, the developers tend to through legal and illegal means of financing from banks, commercial banks will pass on the burden of business.
But when the rescue becomes policy the kidnapping of the banking system chip developers, government regulation of real estate to achieve the goal, very difficult. Now, placed in front of the real estate business has two options: First, the burden of access to credit breathing space and transferred to commercial system Developers collective price, housing sales are sluggish, the possibility of future financial crisis greatly increased; the second is the collective competing real estate prices, and promote some of the more active buyers optimistic about the white-collar groups. but when the white-collar groups are optimistic become family and multi-room family room, the real estate developers face is that those who can not afford even half price room, a huge number of low-income groups, housing a serious surplus, sell the risk of still and wait Most developers, still only a dead end, the banking system naturally can not be spared.
I believe that the policy introduced two suites and second-hand housing policy introduced tax breaks, developers should be satisfied with the collective. However, this credit loose The biggest risk is that real estate developers in 2009 will be a year of focus on mortgage fraud in 2010, the outbreak of the fake mortgage cases, prices will be real significant drop. price collapse that they can not boost consumer spending, people will think prices will fall, continue to wait and see attitude, really want to stimulate consumption in 2011, 2012.
name to meet the housing needs of the people of the two suites to improve the policy, in essence, is to encourage real estate, want to be able to include speculative demand for housing, including driving up the real estate market, and promote capital into the real estate market, the trend in house prices has shown a Housing in the state has adopted to stimulate domestic demand to stimulate
views on the development of real estate, there are some policies for affordable housing. these policies to stimulate domestic demand for what is good overall, but in the specific implementation measures remain the kinds of problems.
the deployment of the State Council, the development of affordable housing there are two main ways: First, the acquisition of real estate investment in the stock of housing; the second is new. At present, many local governments in the implementation of acquisitions, but this ways the key to success is in the end how much money to acquire. If the purpose is to do the acquisition of affordable housing, I think the purchase price must not exceed the price of affordable housing; more than this price, equal to subsidize developers, the new was clearly superior investment acquisition.
the introduction of the policy also has recommended the development of low-cost housing, but should avoid the low-rent housing into an area of small communities of the poor unemployed. If the ratio is too low-rent housing too, bad community culture may help the improvement of living standards. I think China should vigorously promote reference to the Singapore model of housing construction, relying on affordable housing production and consumption of real housing demand driven growth in China.
as long as the normal protection of housing construction in the normal location, then pulling effect on the expansion of domestic demand will be very obvious. from the house form the final level, excluding the price of land caused by differences in location, housing and affordable housing in the use of value is not any different, the latter can not be bad for the local Government and real estate developers unearned affordable housing and other forms of unjust enrichment to obtain, not only for urban and rural residents, but also for the development of farming and other economic entities have formed a serious overdraft.
experience shows that in order to profit in real estate development as its pillar industries approach, although in the pull building materials, household appliances, steel and other industries play an important role. However, the negative impact of the following two aspects that may offset the positive effects: First, housing prices far exceeded growth in household income and its This has resulted in a large backlog of surplus; the second is the excessive real estate development and over-driven steel, building materials and other industries, land and other natural resources and environment pose a serious hazard.
contrast, non-profit or profit housing development in accordance with the development of housing construction is equivalent to or slightly higher than the cost of approved real estate sales price, buyers can significantly reduce the expenditure situation of the cost of access to housing for residents while at the same time, reasonable arrangements for food, clothing, transportation, education, , health care and other consumer spending, a balanced realization of improved living standards; the same time, non-profit or low-profit housing development as a clear point of use, not only to save marketing costs, profits and other unnecessary expenses, but also to avoid the real estate sales surplus. As the same non-profit housing development driven steel, cement, construction machinery, construction and other industries, so the real estate industry, non-profit to develop our country for the important practical significance. Specifically, the current focus on economic development should be affordable housing, low-cost housing and other housing forms, as well as open to residents from the building, such as collective land transfer to create conditions of equality.
Obama Ma Xinzheng foreign experiences after the introduction, and not particularly evident to pull the real estate economic initiatives. the new U.S. administration's policy statement, the real estate can not be a tool for economic salvation. America has always been very low prices, the U.S. median home prices - compared with only 3 times household income. America Real Estate Why and break the bubble? but also because he has a reference price mm from housing costs. in our rural areas, self-built housing as long as tens of thousands of yuan a set, but not for rural housing ownership certificates, not mortgage; and location of adjacent development Commercial real estate development over millions of dollars at every turn, must come down to near the cost of rural self-help housing prices, but also the foreseeable future. the United States both urban and rural areas, whether it is builders, residents self-built houses, all with a unified, legitimate property rights. In Allow self-built system, if the self-built cost of 800 yuan per square meter, prices of goods sold for 1,000 yuan, can determine a property bubble.
since the beginning of this century, real estate and finance as the U.S. economy important pillar industry growth to support the income of the United States many consumers. Now the income of these people suddenly gone, the desire of American families out of debt and very strong, will inevitably lead to sharp drop in U.S. consumption. In my opinion, the United States to save the economy to revitalize the manufacturing sector, rely on real estate prices fuel economic growth era, gone.
for China, relying on housing and automobile consumption, its growth potential is limited. because consumers Only in the housing sector to reduce spending, eating, clothing, etc. in order to increase spending, expand consumption to the development of other industries to provide a space; otherwise, including the garment industry, food industry, agriculture and other industries, are difficult to develop , accounting for the vast majority of Chinese farmers China's population is difficult to get rich, to rely on consumer-driven economic growth in China is still only be empty talk.
finally, to realize the healthy development of China's economy, there must be a good political environment, According to the principle of appointing cadres both ability and integrity, to prevent collusion and economic development in the shabby; to exist in the economy squeezed in a variety of foam, including the stock market bubble and the real estate bubble, to develop agricultural business, by increasing competition in the industry ability to expand employment and improve the competitiveness of the country; expanding domestic demand is to shift the focus of people's livelihood, turning agriculture, to social security, turned to medical care. only solves these three problems, the overall revitalization of the Chinese economy there is hope.
(Institute of Industrial Economics of Chinese Academy of Social Investment and Market Research Director, Professor, Doctor of Economics)
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